I hope the Thanksgiving Holiday has kicked off a fabulous Season of joy, love and cherished times with family and friends for you and yours.
Thanks again for allowing us to be a part of your life and provide service.
We are always immensely grateful to you for same.
This will be a short note with just a couple of points made. It may come in handy when the few moments of quiet set in – or while you, like me, are waiting in a store somewhere while the kids and rest of the family get their shopping done : )
Took an extra day or two to make sure the preparation provided for your best viewing.
Please note, we call it a Q3 update but it also covers some of the larger events driving the steady-as-she-goes growth we expect in 2016 and beyond.
Missed Headline Highlights
As is normal these days, good news gets little coverage, while bad news continues to stoke the crowd’s furnace of fear (FOF).
Here are a few elements the press did not spend a lot of time covering:
Weekly jobless claims fell to 260K – a quick view of any long-term chart will show you that we have now entered a realm in this data file not seen since the mid-70’s
ISM once again was solid
Durable goods – a beat – to the upside
Personal income solid too
Quick note on Shopping Season
Please be aware that over the next several weeks, the newsreel contest of the day award will likely go to the endless stream of dissecting holiday shopping results. We will see them chiseled up from every imaginable direction.
Know this: the season will set records online and in stores.
Competition will lead to great pricing battles.
Technology will allow this to still be profitable to retailers.
A quick run of The Mag Mile yesterday showed shoppers packed in those stores that were opened. Cutting through the garbage designed to throw off your confidence, one can count on the idea we will spend more than we have ever spent.
Sure you will hear chatter about year-over-year percentage growth and the pace thereof. Just recall that as numbers get large on their base, the pace of YOY growth normally moderates. Many headlines will cover it by the hour as Black Friday and the shopping season weekend unfolds.
Don’t be fooled. Overall, we are in solid financial health – liquidity abounds and cash is at records almost everywhere you look.
While we can expect choppy periods, 2016 is set to be a solid surprise to the upside – even as we expect to suffer through a few short-term bouts of panic. (Remember, those are good for us!!)
One last fact to etch into your mind as this Season unfolds and we peer into 2016:
A secular bull market does not give you many corrections and this remains the most hated and feared secular bull market of our time.
HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON kick-off t o you and yours.
Be well, stay safe.